Central Europe Consumer: Polish Retail Sector – June With Solid Retail Sales But Deflationary Pressure in Food

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Central Europe Consumer: Polish Retail Sector – June With Solid Retail Sales But Deflationary Pressure in Food

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03 Aug 2026 00:00:13 ET │ 21 pages

Central Europe Consumer

Polish Retail Sector – June With Solid Retail Sales But Deflationary

Pressure in Food

Rafal Wiatr, CFA AC

CITI'S TAKE +48-22-690-3757

In a generally supportive, albeit mixed, macro environment for Poland's rafal.wiatr@citi.com

retail sector, June retail sales surpassed expectations, although this was

contrasted by a surprising yoy decline in the food inflation. On the corporate

side, JMT reported strong 2Q26 results that beat consensus, though its

guidance for 2H26 remains cautious. The most significant market event was

the news surrounding Zabka, with the latest reports indicating a potential

tender offer to acquire 100% of the company at ZL 32/share. Amid these

developments, our preferred sector names are: LPP, Pepco, Allegro and JMT

(all rated Buy).

Retail sales above expectation — June retail sales were strong, coming at +6.8%

yoy, above PAP consensus of +5.9%. Sales in constant prices were up by 6.2% vs

market expectations of +5.2%. Food sales in nominal terms came at 2.5% yoy (1.7%

in constant prices, vs -2.8% in May) with food inflation at -0.2% vs. 0.5% in May.

E-commerce — GUS based e-commerce retail sales were +12.3% yoy, while Base

Index in June was +14.7% yoy (with volumes +17% yoy and price -1.9% yoy).

Wage growth and inflation — Nominal wage growth in June accelerated to 5.9% yoy

above PAP consensus of 5.6%, with real wage growth of 3.3% yoy vs 2.6% in the prior

month. It is interesting to note that over the recent 3 months retail deposits have

been growing much faster than wages. Headline inflation slightly decreased to 2.5%

yoy from 3.1% in May, in line with PAP consensus.