Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Brazil Focus and Fiscal, BanRep Hold & USD Accumulation Program, Chile IMACEC

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Latin America Economics & Strategy Daily: Brazil Focus and Fiscal, BanRep Hold & USD Accumulation Program, Chile IMACEC

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03 Aug 2026 10:19:27 ET │ 16 pages

Latin America Economics & Strategy

Daily

Brazil Focus and Fiscal, BanRep Hold & USD Accumulation Program,

Chile IMACEC Ernesto Revilla AC

+1-212-816-2621

ernesto.revilla@citi.com

CITI'S TAKE

Luis E Costa, CFA AC

Today we discuss developments in Brazil, Colombia, and Chile. +44-20-7986-9757

luis.costa@citi.com

Regional Macro — Risk bounced as futures edged higher and oil fell as tensions

eased in the Middle East. We are seeing signs of some negotiation now taking place Esteban Tamayo AC

on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which adds to the more cautious FOMC esteban.tamayo@citi.com

and the dialing down of a more aggressive Fed risk last week, the latter supported by AC Leonardo Portothe softer US GDP print of 1.5% QoQ, while monthly core PCE came in marginally

below consensus. In the region, we had the surprise BanRep decision on Friday as leonardo.porto@citi.com

that held policy rates unchanged and simultaneously initiated a foreign reserve AC Paulo Lopes

accumulation program, while we await Copom policy decision this week, along with

paulo.lopes@citi.comthe release of the BCCh and BanRep minutes.

Thais Ortega AC

LatAm Strategy Trades — We remain long BRL against EUR and AUD as the current

thais.ortega@citi.commacroeconomic backdrop still suggests resilience for high real-yielding EM (link).

We are holding on to our vol adjusted (structurally long USD) long MXN, BRL, and Felipe Juncal AC

TRY vs CAD, CHF, and THB to capture high yielders carry (link). felipe.juncal@citi.com

Brazil — Lower near-term inflation expectations are not improving expectations for Donato Guarino AC

longer horizons.