China Materials: Takeaways from Aluminum Expert Call with Zijin Tianfeng Futures

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China Materials: Takeaways from Aluminum Expert Call with Zijin Tianfeng Futures

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03 Aug 2026 11:02:13 ET │ 9 pages

China Materials

Takeaways from Aluminum Expert Call with Zijin Tianfeng Futures

CITI'S TAKE

We hosted an aluminum expert call on 3rd Aug, with Ms. Chen Jingmin,

Aluminum Analyst of Zijin Tianfeng Futures, attending. Ms. Chen expects

aluminum demand could recover in 3Q26E benefiting from demand in the

Auto sector during peak season, tight scrap aluminum supply, and strong Jack Shang, CFAAC

export demand, which would support aluminum price. However, the weak +852-2501-2441

sentiment on potential Fed rate hikes and increasing aluminum supply jack.shang@citi.com

overseas could put pressure on aluminum price. Below are key takeaways.

Anna Wang

+852-2501-2739

Aluminum outlook – Ms. Chen expects aluminum demand could recover in 3Q26E anna.d.wang@citi.com

benefiting from demand in the Auto sector during peak season, tight scrap

Jimmy Fengaluminum supply, and strong export demand, which would support aluminum

+852-2501-7588

price. However, the weak sentiment on potential Fed rate hikes and increasing

jimmy.feng@citi.com

aluminum supply overseas could put pressure on aluminum price.

Cynthia Wu

+852-2868-7813

cynthia.d.wu@citi.com

Middle East aluminum – Total aluminum capacity suspended was 2.56mntpa in

Middle East affected by the Iran conflict. The 1.6mntpa aluminum capacity of EGA

(Emirates Global Aluminum) had been suspended since end-Mar 2026 and resumed

since end-May 2026. Ms. Chen expects it will take 6-12 months for the resumption

considering it was not an orderly suspension. The Qatalum with 0.7mnt aluminum

output in 2025 orderly reduced 40% capacity since Mar 2026 and Aluminum

Bahrain orderly reduced 0.9-1.0mnt capacity since Mar-Apr 2026. Ms.