China Grid Tech: Power Transformer Export Tracker: June China transformer total exports at 47% yoy, with exports to US at +172% yoy

研报英文原文证据摘录

China Grid Tech: Power Transformer Export Tracker: June China transformer total exports at 47% yoy, with exports to US at +172% yoy

Goldman Sachs China Grid Tech: Power Transformer Export Tracker

Exhibit 1: We estimate that the US power transformer demand/local supply gap would narrow from 72% to 57% in 2028E;

despite China export ASP volatilities, US PPI has stabilized at a high level

Power transformer ASP evolvement US local power transformer demand/supply gap (%)

US local pricing (benchmark to US PPI)

Export to US pricing (index Jan 2022 = 100, 3m rolling, 220-330MVA)

250 +3.9% yoy

72% 57% 57% 150

50 -8% yoy

China Customs export pricing is on a FOB basis. US local pricing is estimated with a bidding document, then applied with the PPI for transformers of all power range,

not 220-300MVA specifically.

Source: Company data, Expert estimate, FRED, State Grid, China Customs, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 2: China total transformer export value picked up Exhibit 3: China transformer export value to the US grew

to 47% yoy in June (vs 72% in May) +172% yoy in June or 52% mom

Transformer (>10MVA) export value (Rmb mn) Transformer export value to US (Rmb mn)

3,500 Americas Europe Asia Middle East Africa 350.0 10MVA-220MVA 220MVA-330MVA 330MVA-400MVA

400MVA-500MVA >500MVA

3,000 300.0

2,500 250.0

2,000 200.0

1,500 150.0

1,000 100.0

500 50.0

0 0.0

Source: China Customs, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Source: China customs, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment

Research Research

Pricing remained stable in the US: US transformer PPI has remained stable since Oct

2025 at a high level, at 3.9% yoy in June. Power transformers had an earlier price

appreciation than other categories (due to renewable energy penetration prior to AIDC),