Sandoz Group AG (SDZ.S): Generic semaglutide, Owozy, approved in Brazil; launch expected 2H26

研报英文原文证据摘录

Sandoz Group AG (SDZ.S): Generic semaglutide, Owozy, approved in Brazil; launch expected 2H26

Goldman Sachs Sandoz Group AG (SDZ.S)

EMS manufacturing the pens locally; and (v) another 5 synthetic semaglutide

applications and one biological semaglutide applications being under review as of

May’26 (highlighting the competitive dynamics). However, per analysis undertaken by

our team in Brazil, we note EMS is currently pricing Ozivy at retail at ~BRL 465 (a 54%

discount to Ozempic), in addition to introducing aggressive promotions for as low as BRL

287 per month during the first three months under the company’s retention program,

Vida Mais Leve, which is likely to set a reference for all other similar drugs to be launched

in Brazil (with Poviztra/Extension priced at BRL 490), which should increase volumes

materially while pressuring margins. Additionally, we note Hypera, Cristalia, Biomm and

Cimed are expecting approvals over the coming months, further enhancing competitive

dynamics. We therefore look for further clarity on commercials, and highlight Ozempic

reaching IQVIA gross sales in Brazil of c.$455mn, whilst Wegovy reached $548mn.

Valuation and risks

We are Buy rated on Sandoz. Our 12-month price target is derived from a 50:50 blend

of DCF and EV/EBITDA. Our bottom-up DCF analysis suggests a valuation of CHF 77 per

share (WACC 7%; TGR 0%). On a multiples basis, we believe Sandoz should trade on 15x

2027E EBITDA, giving a valuation of CHF 79 per share. As a result, our price target is CHF

78.

Key downside risks to our view and price target: (i) higher-than-expected price

erosion, specifically in the US markets; (ii) prolonged litigation leading to a delay in

biosimilar launches; (iii) Sandoz opting not to launch certain biosimilars in the US