Hungary Economics: Nuclear power plant shutdown and its implications

研报英文原文证据摘录

Hungary Economics: Nuclear power plant shutdown and its implications

Hungary Economics

03 August 2026 Citi Research

The low water level in the Danube, combined with weather forecasts pointing to

very high temperatures exceeding 30°C and little to no rainfall, has forced a

complete shutdown of Hungary's Paks nuclear power plant.

Annual electricity production from the nuclear power plant amounts to

approximately 16.1 TWh, or 40.5% of the country's total electricity production,

based on 2025 data. The second most important source of electricity production is

photovoltaics (27%), followed by natural gas (20%). Neither can replace nuclear

electricity: solar energy is not a viable alternative during the evening peak hours,

and boosting electricity production from natural gas to the highest levels recorded

over the last five years would – according to our estimates - replace only 11% of

electricity produced by Paks (an increase of 1.7 TWh).

Cuts in electricity use - Authorities initially asked industrial firms to limit their

electricity consumption during hours when household demand peaks (17:00–

22:00) and over the weekend the government issued a decree allowing for

electricity rationing (FT, 2nd Aug). Industry accounts for less than 45% of final

electricity consumption, or approximately 17.5 TWh — only 6% more than total

production at Paks. This illustrates that changes in electricity consumption

patterns alone cannot be the solution: to fully alleviate electricity shortages,

industry would need to cut consumption nearly to zero, which is not a viable

option.

Increasing net imports of electricity — In 2025, Hungary imported 23.3 TWh of

electricity and exported 14.3 TWh. However, hourly data show that exports took