Healthy Spend, Easing Travel Headwinds

研报英文原文证据摘录

Healthy Spend, Easing Travel Headwinds

Valuation is fundamentally EPS ($)** 12.22 13.59 16.30 20.71

too cheap. Our reverse DCF analysis suggests the market is effectively underwriting

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

an ex-growth franchise with contracting margins and deteriorating free cash. framework

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

Execution, Worldpay integration, and Middle East travel remain notable near-term ** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

risks, but we believe those concerns are well understood and largely reflected in

current valuation. Our PT applies a 14x P/E multiple to our 2027E GAAP EPS of

$7.11; this is an implied 6x P/E on our 2027E Adj. EPS forecast of $16.30.

Looking for healthy domestic trends across SMB, Genius, and Worldpay results

amid stronger spend environment. The underlying spending environment across

both domestic SMB and eCommerce should be constructive (both MA and V

reported a ~2 ppt acceleration in US spending in 2Q), which should support

continued momentum at Genius and Worldpay. Within Genius, we're looking for

sustained strength in bookings growth, and further evidence that improving sales

execution and feature rollouts are translating into broader adoption and new

locations. The prior quarter’s nearly 2x YoY increase in bookings, growth in new

locations and improvement in payment attach rates established a healthy baseline,

and continued momentum would reinforce the view that GPN can drive more

product-led organic growth. For Worldpay, we expect healthy trends across

enterprise and eCommerce, consistent with our checks indicating that its

competitive position is improving amid a stronger product set, a more customer-