Bigger, Not Yet Better; Resume Coverage at EW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Bigger, Not Yet Better; Resume Coverage at EW

ring acquisition and EPS ($)** 12.22 13.80 15.82 18.69

integration costs, transformation-related expenses, and significant amortization

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

expenses. Buybacks could drive upside to our estimates if GPN accelerates capital framework

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

return toward its $7.5B 2025-27E target (we model $5.6B during that period), but ** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

we would be incrementally negative on buybacks above our forecasts as we

generally view that as a poor use of capital in a highly competitive space. We'd only

be constructive on capital return above our forecasts if it's concurrent with

acceleration to HSD revenue growth, consistent margin improvement, and strong

GAAP free cash generation. Our $65 PT is based on an 11x multiple applied to our

'27 GAAP EPS. Our assumed multiple is at a slight discount to peers on a growth-

adjusted basis given execution risk amid a large and complex integration.

Worldpay integration underway; combination cements Global as pure play

merchant acquirer, but we acknowledge execution risk given complexity and

track record with prior deals. GPN's combination with Worldpay should create a

more focused merchant acquiring platform with broader scale, distribution, and

exposure across SMB, enterprise, and eCommerce. Still, GPN's long acquisition

history has not clearly produced faster organic growth or margin performance, and

prior deals have involved sizable adjustments that clouded reported earnings

quality. While targeted cost synergies appear attractive, past integration expenses