Qualicorp (QUAL3.SA): 2Q26 Preview: Another bump in the road

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Qualicorp (QUAL3.SA): 2Q26 Preview: Another bump in the road

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02 Aug 2026 16:00:12 ET │ 14 pages

Qualicorp (QUAL3.SA)

2Q26 Preview: Another bump in the road

CITI'S TAKE

We are updating our QUAL3 model ahead of 2Q26 results, which we expect

to extend recent operating weakness, including negative net adds (CitiE -

38k, impacted by another round of operator bankruptcies), decelerating Buy / High Risk

topline (CitiE -5% q/q), and operating deleveraging (margins -440bps y/y). Price (31 Jul 26 18:00) R$1.53

Moreover, cash flow should be pressured by weaker working capital

dynamics, leading to a more modest recurring FCFE of +5m. Needless to say, Target price R$2.30↓

not much to cheer about in the near-term. That said, recent MLR cohorts from R$2.90

continue to outperform expectations, and SULA's efforts to accelerate gross Expected share price return 50.3%sales still support our view for improving net add activity into 2H26. With

the stock trading at 5.1x P/E and offering a ~30% 2027E FCFE yield, we Expected dividend yield 0.7%

believe valuation already reflects near-term challenges, still yielding an Expected total return 51.0%

attractive risk-reward setup for what could be an ‘improving net adds

Market Cap R$435Mnarrative’ into the second half. Maintain Buy/High Risk.

US$86M

Model update – We are revising our QUAL3 model ahead of 2Q26 results (Aug 12th),

reducing our 2026/27 earnings estimates by 30%/45%, reflecting softer operating

assumptions and higher financial expenses. As a result, we are lowering our TP to

R$2.3/sh from R$2.9/sh, also incorporating a higher cost of equity. Price Performance

(RIC: QUAL3.SA, BB: QUAL3 BZ)

Renan Prata, CFA AC

+55-11-4009-3917

Estimates 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E Q126A Q226E Q326E Q426E

renan.prata@citi.com