Check Point Software Technologies, Inc. (CHKP.O): C2Q26 Review + Callback Color: Execution in a Rut with No Reprieve Till C4Q+

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Check Point Software Technologies, Inc. (CHKP.O): C2Q26 Review + Callback Color: Execution in a Rut with No Reprieve Till C4Q+

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31 Jul 2026 17:45:51 ET │ 19 pages

Check Point Software Technologies,

Inc. (CHKP.O)

C2Q26 Review + Callback Color: Execution in a Rut with No Reprieve

Till C4Q+

CITI'S TAKE Neutral

Price (31 Jul 26 16:00) US$127.13Outsized 4Q-weighted topline guide, implying never-before-seen

seasonality in our model—where 3Q is weakening with another accelerating Target price US$130.00↑

decline in product to mid-teens, alongside further maintenance declines from US$125.00

not seen reversing till 1H27—exacerbates a soft 2Q on a low bar, likely

sustaining negative sentiment. While increased sales capacity hiring Expected share price return 2.3%

intentions + emphasis on marketing to enhance brand awareness signals Expected dividend yield 0.0%

assertiveness on addressing mis-execution root-causes (sales re-org Expected total return 2.3%disruption among them) and capturing AI-influenced cyber demand

inflections, we anticipate investor skepticism on durable ROI Market Cap US$12,980M

(OPMs/revs/billings -3pts/-2pts/-2pts since CY24) with patience thinning

as growth rehabilitation is deferred yet again and concerns on further

margin compression into CY27 create an overhang. With mgmt intimating a

more fluid appetite for larger M&A per callback discussions (private markets Price Performance

more dislocated), we'd surmise this may be a better antidote for rejuvenated (RIC: CHKP.O, BB: CHKP US)

growth. We're staying Neutral with CitiE at guidance low-end and adjusted

out-years yielding $130 PT (from $125).

Fatima Boolani AC

+1-212-816-9115EPS (US$) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY FC Cons VA Cons

fatima.boolani@citi.com

2025A 2.21A 2.37A 3.94A 3.40A 11.89A 11.89A 11.89A