风险回报更新

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M

Update

July 31, 2026 05:40 PM GMT

Elia | Europe

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., Paris Branch+

Arthur Sitbon, CFA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

Elia (ELI.BR, ELIA AV)

What’s Changed

Utilities | Belgium

Updated Components

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026)

52-Week Range

EPS

Investment Thesis

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Fiscal Year Ending

Risk Reward for Elia (ELI.BR) has been updated

Reason for change

We reiterate OW. Recent share price weakness looks overdone and offers an

EPS (€)**

Prior EPS (€)**

Overweight

Attractive

€150.00

€124.70

€143.10-92.35

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

5.50

6.88

6.54

7.48

7.21

8.59

8.14

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

attractive entry point:

• Elia's power networks growth story remains intact, with a 19% 2025-30 RAB

CAGR supporting an 18% net income CAGR.

• We see favourable EPS momentum. Our 2026-29 net income estimates are

~3% above consensus. We believe Elia could increase its 2026 net income

guidance at 9M26 results (MSe €750mn vs. guidance €690-740mn).

• We think the balance sheet is stronger than believed (although it is not clear

yet how capex acceleration post-2028 will be funded and various options

may be on the table). Our 2026-30 FFO/debt estimates are above the 7%

threshold and our 2026 net debt estimate is ~6% below consensus.

We update numbers post 1H26 results. Our 2025-30 net income estimates rise 8%

on higher guidance for Belgium & Other in 2026 and improved Belgian regulation

following CREG's decision.Our PT is unchanged at €150 as higher earnings are offset

by a slightly higher WACC to reflect higher bond yields.

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