EBITDA未达预期；维持减持评级

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M

Update

July 31, 2026 05:26 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Shree Cement Ltd | Asia Pacific

Rahul Gupta

Equity Analyst

EBITDA missed our estimate;

maintain UW

Ruchika A Dhanuka

Research Associate

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Modest upside

Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Though above consensus, EBITDA missed our estimate, led by

higher power & fuel expenses – the Middle East conflict inflated

costs sharply. However, management guided for normalizing

costs from here. UW – we see limited margin expansion levers.

Shree Cement Ltd (SHCM.NS, SRCM IS)

India Materials | India

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026)

52-Week Range

Underweight

In-Line

Rs25,500.00

(2)

Rs26,055.00

Rs31,920.0022,550.00

36

US$9,825

US$8

Consolidated EBITDA/t was Rs1213/t vs. our Rs1277/t estimate (Rs1285/t in 4Q). PAT

Sh out, dil, curr (mn)

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Avg daily trading value (mn)

was Rs5.3bn, vs. our Rs4.7bn estimate.

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

EPS (Rs)**

Revenue, net (Rs bn)

EBITDA (Rs bn)

ModelWare net inc (Rs

bn)

P/E

P/BV

ROE (%)

EV/EBITDA

Div yld (%)

498.77 443.00 738.71 929.89

209

243

272

297

47

46

60

69

18

16

27

34

Middle East conflict impact: Management noted that the conflict hampered

gypsum and petcoke supply and thus drove cost inflation (fuel consumption cost

rose from Rs1.60/KCAL to Rs1.95/KCAL QoQ). Furthermore, a shift towards local

supply led to a sharp shift in fuel mix (share of petcoke moved from ~54% in 4QF26

to ~9% in 1QF27), adverse clinker conversion factor, and lower trade sales (62% vs.

64% in 4Q). Management guided for normalization of costs from here on (with the

caveat that the Middle East environment normalizes).

Volumes did well, again: Overall domestic volumes grew ~17% YoY (-7% YoY in

1QF26; two-year CAGR at ~4%), vs. our ~14% YoY estimate. Strong growth was led

46.1

3.6

8.4

15.8

0.7

58.8

3.9

6.9

18.1

0.5

35.3

3.5

11.0

13.5

0.8

28.0

3.2

12.7

11.2

…