Risk Reward Update: Aberdeen Group Ord | Europe

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Risk Reward Update: Aberdeen Group Ord | Europe

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Aberdeen- AberdeenGroup Ord (ABDN.L)Group Ord (ABDN.L)

A Challenging Set-up

PRICE TARGET 217p UNDERWEIGHT THESIS

We value Aberdeen using a 6.5x 2027 P/E multiple for the Investments business (a discount ▪Secular headwinds to the core business

to the sector on weaker growth), 7x for Adviser and 15.5x for Personal (similar to the sector remain, though interactive investor (ii)

as it is growing at or slightly below peers), while we value Other (NII, Pension revenues) at 8x remains competitive. We

given lower revenue quality. We roll out to a 12-month valuation using an 11% CoE and see continued challenges to flows in the

include the value of the Standard Life stake at a 25% discount. short to medium term, with financial targets

increasingly challenging. 239p ▪Operating efficiency improving thoughConsensus Price Target Distribution 203.00p 294.00p top-line challenges continue to impact the MS PT

bottom line, and the weaker earnings powerSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

leaves DPS uncovered for the next few

years.

▪In the longer term, we see some

RISK REWARD CHART attractions, given (i) the range of product

capabilities and strength in key structural

demand areas, e.g. multi-asset and income;

GBp

337p337p(+40.89%)337p(+40.89%)(+40.89%) (ii) strong global distribution potential,

including Asia; and (iii) repositioning of

320 higher-multiple Advice and Platform

businesses.

240 239p239p239p

217p217p(-9.28%)217p(-9.28%)(-9.28%) Consensus Rating Distribution

27% Overweight

160 33% Equal-weight

40% Underweight

80 MS Rating

102p102p(-57.36%)102p(-57.36%)(-57.36%)

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27 Risk Reward Themes