2Q26 Preview: European Asset Managers | Europe

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 Preview: European Asset Managers | Europe

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Jupiter- FundJupiterManagementFundPLCManagement(JUP.L) PLC (JUP.L)

Awaiting flow inflection

PRICE TARGET 185p EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

We apply a 10x P/E multiple, roughly in line with the sector to reflect the revised growth Runway for growth within Institutional and

outlook, add ~50% of the excess capital and use an 11% CoE to translate this into a 12-month International, along with moderating mutual

valuation. fund outflows suggests opportunities for

revenue recovery; however, Jupiter’s active

167p asset management business continues to

Consensus Price Target Distribution 120.00p 210.00p face performance-related equity flow

MS PT headwinds, and we expect current

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates challenges to persist. Given limited upside to

our target price, we view the risk reward as

balanced, hence Equal-weight.

RISK REWARD CHART

Consensus Rating Distribution

GBp

22% Overweight

301p301p(+72.39%)301p(+72.39%)(+72.39%) 67% Equal-weight

320 11% Underweight

MS Rating

240 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

185p185p(+5.96%)185p(+5.96%)(+5.96%)

175p175p175p

104p104p(-40.44%)104p(-40.44%)(-40.44%)

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE 301p BASE CASE 185p BEAR CASE 104p

Strong market recovery and improving Flow recovery on Absolute Return Prolonged market volatility and weaker

flows outperformance outflows

We assume an improved macro outlook and We assume AuM growth at ~6% CAGR over Under our bear scenario, we assume

superior market recovery, with stronger 2026-28e, driven by stronger retail flows. prolonged market volatility with macro