Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– MGM -ChinaMGMHoldingsChinaLimitedHoldings(2282.HK) Limited (2282.HK)

Market Share Gainer; Positive Consensus EBITDA Revision Potential

PRICE TARGET HK$13.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Base-case scenario value, derived using a target yield on 2026e FCFE. Our target FCFE yield ▪MGM has maintained market share helped

is 10.0%, which is 200bp higher than the long-term average since 2012, reflecting by higher win rates and competitive

structurally weaker operating leverage and higher sector risk premium. The relatively higher volumes, also MGM China's addition of new

target FCFE yield uplift reflects smaller scale and weaker liquidity. We also deduct the suites could further support premium mass

annual amount of the capex portion of committed non-gaming from each year's FCFE growth.

calculation. ▪The stock offers an attractive F2026E

dividend yield (~5%), though it is not highest HK$14.69

in its peer group.

Consensus Price Target Distribution HK$12.30 HK$18.20 China's lower capex spend relative MS PT ▪MGM

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates to peers (US$72m in 1H26), supports an

attractive FCFE yield (1H26 annualized FCFE

Yield: ~12.5%)

▪However, we expect Corporate EBITDA to

RISK REWARD CHART decline 11% YoY in 2026, primarily due to

higher licensing fees.

HKD

HK$17.00HK$17.00(+49.65%)HK$17.00(+49.65%)(+49.65%)

Consensus Rating Distribution

16 92% Overweight

8% Equal-weight

HK$13.00HK$13.00(+14.44%)HK$13.00(+14.44%)(+14.44%) 0% Underweight

HK$11.36HK$11.36HK$11.36 MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

HK$9.00HK$9.00(-20.77%)HK$9.00(-20.77%)(-20.77%)

Risk Reward Themes

4 Self-help: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27