Risk Reward Update

First-page research excerpt

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M

Update

July 31, 2026 04:07 PM GMT

MGM China Holdings Limited | Asia Pacific

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Praveen K Choudhary

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

MGM China Holdings Limited (2282.HK)

From

To

Price Target

HK$13.50

HK$13.00

Bull Case

HK$17.30

HK$17.00

Base Case

HK$13.50

HK$13.00

Bear Case

HK$9.30

HK$9.00

Updated Components

EPS

Investment Thesis

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

MGM China Holdings Limited (2282.HK, 2282 HK)

Hong Kong/Macau Gaming | Hong Kong

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Jul 31, 2026)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

Risk Reward for MGM China Holdings Limited (2282.HK) has

been updated

Reason for change

EPS (HK$)**

Prior EPS (HK$)**

Overweight

In-Line

HK$13.00

HK$11.36

HK$17.37-9.75

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

1.35

1.08

1.22

1.41

1.31

1.51

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

We trim our price target by 4%, from HK$13.50 to HK$13.00. Our price target is

lower mostly because of 7% lower 2026 EBITDA (partially offset by lower capex)

driving 6% lower FCFE.

• We have incorporated 2Q26 actuals.

• Our lower 2026 EBITDA forecast primarily reflects 14% higher promotional

costs.

• We forecast property EBITDA of HK$2,412mn in 3Q26 (+4% QoQ, +2% YoY),

rising to HK$2,480mn in 4Q26 (+3% QoQ, -10% YoY).

• Our 2026-28 property EBITDA estimates are HK$9.7bn (-3% YoY), HK

$10.3bn (+6% YoY) and HK$10.8bn (+5% YoY), respectively.

• We forecast 2026 royalty expense to rise 106% YoY in 2026, suggesting

further upward consensus revisions to royalty expense.

• Our 2026-28 property EBITDA estimates are -1.1%, +0.2% and +0.8% vs.

Visible Alpha consensus, respectively.

We cut our EPS estimate by 11% for 2026 driven by lower margin (from continued

competitive pressure) and negative operating leverage. Our 2027-28E are down by

14%.

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