7月MPM回顾：提前预期加息时间

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July 31, 2026 03:27 PM GMT

BoJ Watch & Macro Strategy | Japan

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Takeshi Yamaguchi

Chief Japan Economist

July MPM Review: Bringing

Forward the Timing of Expected

Rate Hikes

Koichi Sugisaki

Strategist

Masayuki Inui

Economist

Hiromu Uezato

Strategist

We bring forward our rate hike forecasts to October 2026 and

March 2027, reflecting the BoJ’s more constructive

communication regarding rate hikes at shorter intervals.

Key Takeaways

Economics: We view the July Outlook Report and Governor Ueda’s press

conference as hawkish, with the BoJ appearing to lay the ground work for rate

hikes at shorter intervals than its previous roughly six-month pace.

Reflecting the BoJ’s more constructive communication on faster rate hikes, we

bring forward our rate hike forecasts to October 2026 and March 2027.

That said, we remain more cautious than the BoJ on underlying inflation and its

upside risks. While we revise the timing of rate hikes, our view on the underlying

inflation trend remains unchanged.

Macro strategy: Faster rate hikes can be possible depending on incoming data,

but the market already has priced in such risk. As such, we maintain a

constructive stance on the short- to medium-term sector.

Although intervention risk remains a concern, we expect USD/JPY to grind higher

if all else equal. The key focus will be US economic data, the resulting repricing of

the US terminal rate, and changes in financial conditions.

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