Circle Internet Group (CRCL.N): Model Update: Fine Tuning Estimates

研报英文原文证据摘录

Circle Internet Group (CRCL.N): Model Update: Fine Tuning Estimates

Circle Internet Group (CRCL.N)

31 July 2026 Citi Research

If any of these risk factors has a greater downside impact than we anticipate,

the share price may not achieve our price target.

Coinbase Global Inc

(COIN.O; US$163.58; 1H; 30 Jul 26; 16:00)

Valuation

Our 12-month target price of $235 is derived by applying our 20x-25x target

EBITDA multiple range vs. our FY’27 adjusted EBITDA estimate, implying an

enterprise value of approximately $65.8B. Bridging to equity value, we add

~$10B in cash, subtract ~$7.8B in gross debt, and exclude ~$1.4B in crypto

assets held on the balance sheet, which we treat separately given mark-to-

market volatility and their non-operational nature. We think the right anchor

is the 20x-25x NTM EBITDA range, reflecting Coinbase in a mid-cycle

environment with recurring revenue providing a floor, transaction revenue

recovering but not at peak, and optionality not fully priced.

Risks

We rate COIN High Risk based on Citi's quantitative model, which screens the

stock as High Risk given high exposure to volatile crypto prices. We note the

following downside risks to the shares achieving or exceeding our target price:

• Digital Asset Reform — Mixed Outcomes: Legislative momentum has

improved markedly, but meaningful hurdles remain. Reform is likely net

positive for the industry while simultaneously inviting increased competition

from both crypto-native and traditional financial services firms. Regulatory

changes could materially alter Coinbase's unit economics, business lines, and

operating cost structure over time, including through the Circle partnership,

prediction markets, and perpetual futures frameworks.

• New Product and Legal Exposure: Coinbase's expansion into prediction