Reddit：广告增长势头依然强劲，但流量和用户挑战重现；维持中性，目标价185美元

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J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

31 July 2026

Reddit

Advertising Trajectory Remains Strong, But Traffic and

User Challenges Resurface; Remain Neutral, $185 PT

Neutral

RDDT, RDDT US

Price (30 Jul 26):$178.04

▼Price Target (Dec-27):$185.00

Prior (Dec-26):$200.00

RDDT shares traded down -11% post-close despite strong 2Q financial results &

3Q guidance, w/Google traffic headwinds pressuring DAUq trends.In the US,

Logged-In DAUq declined -100k Q/Q & Logged-Out DAUq declined -200k

driven by ongoing changes to the Google search ecosystem, while int’l user trends

were also pressured by changes to machine-translated content rankings. The traffic

headwinds were choppy through the quarter and worsened into the end of 2Q, with

visibility remaining limited QTD. Bigger picture, we believe the ongoing traffic

volatility from Google’s evolution toward AI Overviews will be a key focus

area for RDDT during its ongoing data licensing renewal negotiations. RDDT

emphasized that there are many layers & dimensions to its relationship with

Google, & while the new deals are not necessarily all or nothing, the ultimate goal

is to establish arrangements that drive users into the Reddit ecosystem to maximize

value. Aside from Search traffic, RDDT is seeing encouraging early results from

onboarding, conversion, & feed optimizations, & advertising momentum remains

very strong. In 2Q, RDDT delivered 60%+ revenue growth for the eighth

consecutive quarter, while key profit and cash flow metrics more than doubled Y/Y.

We recognize RDDT’s unique financial profile & are encouraged by early productdriven engagement gains, but lack of visibility into future Google search & internet

landscape changes remains a risk. We remain Neutral rated and are establishing a

December 2027 PT of $185 based on ~12x our 2028 Adj. EBITDA of $2.9B.

Early Product Traction Offset by Search Headwinds. 2Q DAUq of 130M

(+18% Y/Y) was in-line with expectations, but US DAUq declined -300k Q/Q

driven by continued Search headwinds. Search referral traffic was choppy

during the quarter, with changes to machine-translated content rankings

impacting international users, while ongoing construction of the Search

…