中国：国家统计局制造业PMI大幅走弱

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J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Economic Research

31 July 2026

China: NBS manufacturing PMI

weakened sharply

July NBS PMIs showed broad weakness across both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing

Emerging Markets Asia, Economic

and Policy Research

Mfg PMI output component slipped into contraction, raising downside risks to

sustaining June’s IP rebound

Jiayi Li

New orders weakened, although exports may have recovered later in the month

after port disruptions

Politburo signaled faster fiscal deployment, while incremental easing remains

possible if growth softens

NBS PMIs showed broad-based weakening across both production and demand, and

across both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, pointing to a soft start to 3Q. The

output PMI slipped just below the 50 threshold, raising risks around sustaining June’s

IP rebound, while domestic demand weakened more sharply. This likely increases

pressure on fiscal execution, as emphasized at yesterday’s July Politburo meeting.

Price components continued to ease, potentially reviving deflation concerns further

ahead.

NBS manufacturing PMI surprised to the downside in July, falling 1.1pts to 49.2 (vs.

JPM: 50.8; consensus: 50.1). The output PMI dipped below the 50-threshold for the

first time in five months, dropping 1.5pts to 49.9. While PMI signals do not always

track hard activity data, this suggests the pace of June’s industrial production rebound

(1.0% m/m sa) may not be sustained, in part due to the traditional production offseason for some manufacturing segments. Despite the July weakness, business

sentiment remained upbeat, with the future output PMI continuing to expand (54.1).

Demand components also weakened, led by domestic demand. The new orders PMI

fell by 2.7pts to 48.5, a larger decline than new export orders (-0.5pt), and both are in

the contractionary territory. Export orders PMI slowed to 49.6, in line with our midJuly port tracking as typhoon Bavi disrupted port operations, but there could be some

recovery in the later part of the month that might not be captured by the survey. We

will wait for the RatingDog PMI due next Monday, focused on export-oriented firms,

to provide more clarity.…