速评：FY26指引，AVI低于摩根大通预期和共识预期

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J P M O R G A N

CEEMEA Equity Research

31 July 2026

AVI

First take: FY26 guidance, AVI coming in below JPMe

and consensus expectations

Our Take: AVI (OW) released its FY26 trading statement guiding for HEPS

growth of 4–6% to 758.3c–772.9c, implying a much softer 2H26 outcome after

delivering 12% growth in 1H26. The guidance is 2–4% below our estimate and

4–6% below Bloomberg consensus. Management flagged a tougher 2H26 trading

environment, driven by weaker demand, higher fuel prices, sustained high interest

rates and a more competitive landscape. Group revenue increased 1.4% (vs JPMe

+3.6%), while gross margins were broadly well protected, with improvements in

most categories. The exception was Entyce beverages, where intensified

competition weighed on margins. Net finance costs were lower year-on-year. The

update is consistent with what we saw in our in-store pricing survey, where AVI’s

promotional participation stepped up sharply to 44% in July (see our note). The key

question for investors is whether this period represents a peak margin backdrop for

AVI, and whether margins begin to compress as cost inflation rises and demand

remains subdued. The stock is down ~15% YTD [vs. the all-share JSE index, down

3%] and now trades at a ~25% discount to its 10-year average multiple, despite an

attractive fundamental profile: ~8% dividend yield, ~35% ROCE, ~8% FCF yield

and a three-year earnings CAGR of ~7%. FY26 results are due on 7 September.

Noteworthy Areas: By division, Entyce Beverages saw revenue decline 2.5%

(vs JPMe+2.5%), with operating profit expected to fall as competitive intensity

in the creamer category increased (vs JPMe +2.4% OP growth). Snackworks

revenue rose 1.9% (vs JMPe +4.0%), with margins expected to improve (vs

JMPe +70bps). I&J delivered revenue growth of 10.2% (vs JMPe +10.3%),

underpinned by strong fishing performance, although profitability was

impacted by an unfavourable, non-cash biological asset revaluation of R84m

(vs JPMe+140bps margin expectation). Personal Care revenue declined 5.1%

(vs JPMe-6.7%), with operating profit improving marginally (vs JPMe -1.9%).

Footwear and Apparel Brands revenue increased 2.1% (vs JPMe +1.6%), with

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