第一三共 (4568.T)：Q1略偏负面：肿瘤药可能未提振利润。Avanzar试验前景可期。计划已修订

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31 Jul 2026 01:33:26 ET │ 10 pages

Daiichi Sankyo (4568.T)

Q1 somewhat negative: Oncology might not boosting profits. Avanzar

trials promising. Plan revised

CITI'S TAKE

Buy

Price (30 Jul 26 15:30)

¥2,889.0

Target price

¥4,800.0

Expected share price return

66.1%

Expected dividend yield

3.5%

Expected total return

69.6%

Market Cap

¥5,257,221M

US$32,953M

In Q1 revenue grew 21% YoY but OP fell 12% to ¥85.1bn, missing consensus

of ¥97.2bn but in line with our ¥86.3bn forecast. Core OP rose 6% but in

non-core items there were EU business restructuring costs. We believe the

gap with expectations stems from inventory valuation losses in CoGS.

Enhertu revenue rose 40% globally and Datroway saw a 5x increase, for a

strong performance. The company revised full-year guidance, raising

revenue and OP, maintaining core OP, and lowering NP. Despite higher

revenue from strong oncology sales, Daiichi Sankyo thinks inventory

valuation losses and a negative FX impact will prevent core OP growth. In

the pipeline, the Avanzar trial readout for Datroway will be a focus. The TL07 trial readout has been postponed to next fiscal year or later, making the

Avanzar trial more important.

Hidemaru YamaguchiAC

Implications — Results were announced at 13:00. We view results as slightly

negative for the shares, as earnings fell below consensus and guidance revisions

were limited. The shares fell 5% after the announcement, bringing the decline to 10%

from the previous day. We attribute the morning decline to sector-wide weakness.

Consol.

Sales

OP

RP

NP

EPS

PE

¥M

YOY (%)

¥M

YOY (%)

OPM(%)

¥M

YOY (%)

¥M

YOY (%)

X

1,886,256

17.8

331,925

56.9

17.6

355,631

49.9

295,757

47.1

158

18.2

3/26A

2,123,045

12.6

229,089

-31.0

10.8

263,431

-25.9

259,873

-12.1

143

20.2

3/27CE

2,280,000

7.4

315,000

37.5

13.8

na

260,000

0.0

143

20.2

3/27E

2,280,862

7.4

315,108

37.5

13.8

329,108

24.9

260,108

0.1

143

20.2

3/28E

2,307,577

1.2

403,104

27.9

17.5

416,604

26.6

333,304

28.1

183

15.8

3/29E

2,608,604

13.0

325,694

-19.2

12.5

339,194

-18.6

271,394

-18.6

149

19.4

3/25A

A: Actuals, E: Citi Research Ests, CE: Co. Ests, RE: Citi Research Revised Ests, CRE: Co. Revised Ests, NA: Not Available, NM: Not Meaningful