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Asia Pacific Equity Research

Australia Most Read

31 July 2026

In case you missed it, Aussie Most Read Publications: 21 Jul to

27 Jul 2026

Nickel Industries (Lyndon Fagan) (NIC AU, OW, PT A$1.45)

Significant growth outlook undervalued by the market; initiate at Overweight

We initiate coverage of Nickel Industries (NIC AU) with an OW rating and Jun-27 PT of A$1.45, using an $18k/t LT real Ni price;

our PT implies ~70% upside. NIC offers unique nickel pure-play exposure via its mining and downstream nickel processing

operations in Indonesia. We forecast attributable EBITDA to grow from ~$240m in FY25 to $550m in FY27 as the company

brings on production from its second mine, Sampala, and grows nickel output from downstream high pressure acid leach

(HPAL) operations. Key takeaways: 1) NIC’s earnings are split fairly evenly between Mining / Pig Iron (Rotary Kiln Electric

Furnaces, RKEF) / HPAL products; 2) despite our relatively flat nickel price outlook, volume growth sees EBITDA grow every

year through the next five years, reaching ~$900m (attributable) in FY31E; and 3) the stock looks significantly undervalued

trading on a P/NPV of 0.6x, with our FY28E EV/EBITDA at 4.3x falling to 2.6x in FY30E.

Aluminium Dashboard (Lyndon Fagan)

Prices fall materially on supply growth fears, despite deficit markets; visible inventory remains

elevated ahead of a looser 2027/28 balance

Key takeaways: (1) Aluminium prices have fallen ~17% to ~US$3,200/t ($1.45/lb) since early June on stubbornly high

exchange inventory, soft demand, market perceptions that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to elevated

volumes coming to market, and worries around Indonesian supply growth (JPMe +2.6Mt, 2025-28); from a supply-demand

point of view, JPM’s Global Commodities Research team views the peak 2026 deficit as 2Q, which has now passed, although

the market still looks tight through the balance of the year. (2) Inventory remains elevated, above 2023-2025 levels – despite

the 2Q26 deficit (Arabian Gulf aluminium production down ~35% YoY in June), global visible inventory hasn’t drawn down

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