What is Priced In? Assessing synergy scenarios

研报英文原文证据摘录

What is Priced In? Assessing synergy scenarios

for illustrative purposes DKK 52 Week range 1913.50-1233.00only and are not making any changes to our numbers with this report.

Post 2Q px reaction reflects de-rating - we calculate current valuation reflects a DKK9bn

synergies range and low teens 2027-30 EPS CAGR expectations vs 20% in the guidance.The

current share price implies an c.18x FY27E P/E on BarcE FY27E EPS of DKK78, below DSV’s

historical PE of ~-23x average, which we believe reflects elevated execution risk on

DSV's DKK18bn synergies targets. DSV has historically delivered c.18% EPS CAGR; therefore

current lower multiple reflects expectations of lower EPS CAGR. In the European logistics sector, Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Bloomberg

Link to Barclays Live for interactive chartingDHL trades on c.15x P/E on HSD to c.10% EPS growth and lower margins. We believe a 18x PE

multiple is consistent with a low-teens EPS growth profile. We calculate a low-teens EPS

scenario in our DKK9bn synergies scenario (out of DKK18bn target) where we model for European Transportation

FY27-30E EPS CAGR at c11%. In our view, the DKK9bn scenario assumes solid, albeit not perfect, Marco Limite

execution in Air & Sea with limited contribution from Road, where EBIT remains around DKK5bn. +39 (0)2 6372 2582

A DKK12bn scenario would reflect a full delivery in Air & Sea synergies while Road would remain marco.limite@barclays.com

BBI, Milanat cDKK5bn and would reflect an EPS CAGR of around mid-teens%.

Helene Iselin

+44 (0)20 7773 7391

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies helene.iselin@barclays.com

covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a

Barclays, UK