Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX.O): Crenessity Growth Continues to Outpace Expectations While Ingrezza Guide Raise Reinforces Durable VMAT2 Demand

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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX.O): Crenessity Growth Continues to Outpace Expectations While Ingrezza Guide Raise Reinforces Durable VMAT2 Demand

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30 Jul 2026 22:02:49 ET │ 11 pages

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX.O)

Crenessity Growth Continues to Outpace Expectations While Ingrezza

Guide Raise Reinforces Durable VMAT2 Demand

CITI'S TAKE Buy / High Risk

Price (30 Jul 26 16:00) US$185.50 NBIX delivered 2Q26 total revenue of $959.0M, above ours/cons of

Target price US$246.00 ~$925M/$891M, driven by a solid Ingrezza print, continued Crenessity

strength, and partial-quarter VYKAT XR contribution following the Soleno Expected share price return 32.6%

close (here). Ingrezza delivered ~$716M, supported by double-digit TRx Expected dividend yield 0.0%

growth and record NRx, prompting mgmt. to raise FY26 Ingrezza guidance Expected total return 32.6%

to $2.825B-$2.875B from $2.7B-$2.8B. At only ~10% VMAT2 penetration Market Cap US$18,652M

across the ~800,000 US TD patient population, we continue to see

meaningful runway for Ingrezza growth. Crenessity delivered $184M, up

~20% QoQ, with only ~15% of the diagnosed CAH population prescribed

therapy, reinforcing the view that the launch remains early in an Yigal Nochomovitz, Ph.D.AC

underserved market. VYKAT XR contributed ~$54M from the May 18 +1-212-816-1441

close, with ~$94M pro forma full-quarter sales, though mgmt. expects yigal.nochomovitz@citi.com

sales roughly flat from 2Q to 3Q before growth resumes in 4Q and beyond Joohwan Kim

as discontinuations from the initial launch bolus normalize. +1-212-816-0224

joohwan.kim@citi.com

Crenessity launch trajectory still early. Crenessity’s 2Q26 performance continues Caroline DePaul

to support the view that launch momentum remains durable, helping push back +1-212-816-0211