Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO.O): 2Q26 Recap & Model Update: Clear Launch Momentum in Thalassemia; TP to $52/shr

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Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO.O): 2Q26 Recap & Model Update: Clear Launch Momentum in Thalassemia; TP to $52/shr

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30 Jul 2026 18:08:24 ET │ 15 pages

Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO.O)

2Q26 Recap & Model Update: Clear Launch Momentum in

Thalassemia; TP to $52/shr

CITI'S TAKE

Agios delivered a strong 2Q26 with WW mitapivat revenues of $44.7M Buy / High Risk

(+116% QoQ), materially exceeding our estimate and consensus (Figure 1).

The beat was driven by momentum in the early thalassemia launch, where Short-Term View: Upside

new patient prescriptions grew 82% QoQ to 442 (from 242 in 1Q26). Despite Price (30 Jul 26 16:00) US$32.75

the strong quarter, AGIO shares were weak today on apparent concerns that Target price US$52.00↑the momentum in 2Q is not sustainable. However, we would argue this view

discounts the multiple tailwinds in the thalassemia launch that collectively from US$46.00

point towards an expectation of continued growth. During our callback, Expected share price return 58.8%

management reiterated several of these dynamics such as burgeoning

Expected dividend yield 0.0%penetration into the non-transfusion-dependent population, ongoing

expansion of the physician prescriber base (emphasis on breadth), Expected total return 58.8%

increasing physician awareness buoyed by EHA data, and strong payer Market Cap US$1,948M

coverage (75% covered lives). We have raised our thalassemia revenue

estimates to reflect these growth drivers, which moves our TP to $52 (+$6).

Parsing thalassemia launch trajectory expectations — Agios has estimated there Price Performance

are 4,000 diagnosed US thalassemia patients that are addressable with Aqvesme;

(RIC: AGIO.O, BB: AGIO US)this implies that the strong launch just two quarters in is already ~11% penetrated

(442 starts/4,000).