Exelon Corp (EXC.O): Data Center Pipeline Size Declined but Quality Improved; Q2 Miss

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Exelon Corp (EXC.O): Data Center Pipeline Size Declined but Quality Improved; Q2 Miss

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30 Jul 2026 16:09:08 ET │ 12 pages

Exelon Corp (EXC.O)

Data Center Pipeline Size Declined but Quality Improved; Q2 Miss

CITI'S TAKE

The selloff of the stock on the 7GW data center pipeline reduction seems like

an overreaction. The remaining pipeline appears higher quality, with 11 GW

classified as high probability (includes 4GW backed by $1B of collateral). Buy

Outside this pipeline reset, EXC added a new $1B ACE battery project Price (29 Jul 26 16:00) US$47.03

(outside of plan), advocated for VPPs and batteries, and continued to guide

Target price US$58.00$12–17B transmission upside. EXC’s Q2 $0.43 adj. EPS missed Citi but FY26

guidance reaffirmed. Expected share price return 23.3%

Expected dividend yield 3.6%

Data Center Pipeline Reset, Down ~7GW — EXC reduced the disclosed data center Expected total return 26.9%

pipeline by ~7GW to 36GW, consisting of 11GW high probability and 25GW in future

cluster studies (Figure 1). The reduction reflects potential customers who did not Market Cap US$48,121M

post collateral during the TSA process. We note that mgmt remains in discussions

with one potential customer that is considering posting collateral, but the rest are

unlikely to move forward. We think the 36GW DC guide improves pipeline quality,

but the lower headline drove the negative stock reaction. Price Performance

(RIC: EXC.O, BB: EXC US)

PJM Policy Outlook Getting Better — EXC management applauded PJM’s actions to

address the short-term resource adequacy issues but acknowledged longer-term

structural challenges remain. In our view, the positive rhetoric suggests more

constructive outcome for meaningful market reform, which is positive for EXC.