Banco Comercial Portugues SA (BCP.LS): Thoughts post conference call

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Banco Comercial Portugues SA (BCP.LS): Thoughts post conference call

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30 Jul 2026 13:27:26 ET │ 11 pages

Banco Comercial Portugues SA (BCP.LS)

Thoughts post conference call

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral The overall tone from the call was constructive. The most relevant

incremental messages from Q&A were the further upgrade to Portugal NII Price (30 Jul 26 16:30) €1.07

expectations (now low-teens growth in both 2026 and 2027), supported Target price €0.98

by strong volume growth and structural hedge tailwinds. Management Expected share price return -8.4%

indicated it may provide a more formal update to its 2027-28 outlook Expected dividend yield 2.8%

alongside 3Q26 results, although no decision has yet been taken by the Expected total return -5.6%

Board.

Market Cap €15,841M

US$18,166M

# Portugal NII and volumes

• With regards to the strong NII growth QoQ in 2Q26 of c.5%, besides QoQ

volume growth and calendar effect, there is also the impact from interest Borja Ramirez SeguraAC

rates. Management noted that most of the assets have a beta of almost 1, +44-20-7508-0206

whereas the beta for retail term deposits is at c.50%. borja.ramirez@citi.com

Anand Demble • Management upgraded Portugal NII growth guidance to low-teens for FY26

+44-20-7986-4056

and indicated that, under current market-implied forward rates, low-teens anand.gopal.demble@citi.com

NII growth is also achievable in FY27. This is thanks to strong volume

growth, deposit pricing discipline and structural hedge reinvestment. BCP Andre Nemec

also indicated limited sensitivity to interest rates, with c.2-3% NII benefit +44-20-7986-2889

andre.nemec@citi.com for each 100bps higher rates.

o If we take such NII guidance at face value, we estimate upside to

consensus EPS 2026-27E of c.1-4%, assuming all else equal. If we