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Valero Energy Corporation (VLO.N): Strong 2Q Result
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Valero Energy Corporation (VLO.N): Strong 2Q Result
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30 Jul 2026 10:05:08 ET │ 13 pages
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO.N)
Strong 2Q Result
CITI'S TAKE
VLO reported strong 2Q results with adjusted EPS of $12.54 handily beating
our $10.19 estimate and street mean of $10.08. The outperformance vs our
estimate was broad based with all three segments beating estimates. Both
Refining and Renewable Diesel exceeded throughput, capture and Opex Neutral
expectations. The Ethanol segment margins were meaningfully higher than Price (29 Jul 26 16:00) US$301.32our forecast. VLO returned ~$2.6B to shareholders in 2Q26, significantly
higher than our estimate, resulting in a payout ratio of 59% of adj net CFO. Target price US$302.00
We believe the expectation of an earnings beat this quarter and a strong 3Q Expected share price return 0.2%
is already priced into the shares and expect a muted response to the results. Expected dividend yield 1.6%
Expected total return 1.8%Refining — Total throughput of 2,950kbpd was 4%/5% above Citi/cons. GM/bbl of
$23.62 was 8%/7% above Citi/cons. Adj. EBIT of $4,444mm sharply beat Citi/cons Market Cap US$89,472M
by 19%/18%. Opex/bbl (excl D&A) of $4.70 came in 3% below both Citi/cons.
Regional Performance — In GC, throughput of 1,829kbpd came in 5%/6% above
Citi/cons and exceeded the high end of guidance. GC GM/bbl of $24.42 was Price Performance
15%/10% higher than Citi/cons of $21.20/$22.25, respectively. MC throughput of
(RIC: VLO.N, BB: VLO US)485kbpd was 4%/5% above Citi/cons, respectively, and exceeded high end of
guidance. MC GM/bbl of $20.46 matched cons but was 5% below Citi. NA
throughput of 506kbpd exceeded Citi/cons estimates by 2%/3% and exceeded high
end of guidance. NA GM/bbl of $22.02 was 2% above cons but 10% below Citi. WC
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