Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Intact -FinancialIntactCorporationFinancial(IFC.TO)Corporation (IFC.TO)

Consistent Performance Going Forward

PRICE TARGET C$290.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

underwriting to drive earningsValuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis where we apply a 20.3x 2027 P/E multiple ▪Disciplined

to Canada, 10.5x to UK&I, and 14.2x to US segments (derived from comparable peer multiples growth. Mgmt. is guiding toward sub-95%

across the P&C subsectors/geographies). Our PT implies an overall 16.5x 2027 Base EPS C/R for Canada personal auto & property,

valuation, a premium to large carriers peer multiple averages due to Canada marketshare & and low 90s C/R or better for Canada

underwriting prowess. Commercial. Both are achievable due to 1)

the strong utilization of repair partner C$326.46

network offsetting repair costs; and 2)

Consensus Price Target Distribution C$275.00 C$379.00 portfolio optimization and 3) persistent hard

MS PT

market conditions.Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates ▪Diversified growth in attractive lines

priced in the UK&I segment benefits from

positive mix shift and DLG integration. US

RISK REWARD CHART AND OPTIONS IMPLIED PROBABILITIES (12M) P&C segment should see solid results driven

by mid single digit growth in performing

LOBs along with maintaining low 90s C/R or

CAD better.

480 Consensus Rating Distribution

C$365.00(+28.16%)C$365.00C$365.00(+28.16%)(+28.16%) ProbProbProb (>365.00)~9.0%(>365.00)~9.0%(>365.00)~9.0%

67% Overweight

360 33% Equal-weight

C$290.00(+1.83%)C$290.00C$290.00(+1.83%)(+1.83%) 0% Underweight ProbProbProb (>290.00)~50.3%(>290.00)~50.3%(>290.00)~50.3% C$284.80C$284.80C$284.80

MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research