Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Intact -FinancialIntactCorporationFinancial(IFC.TO)Corporation (IFC.TO)

Consistent Performance Going Forward

PRICE TARGET C$300.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

underwriting to drive earningsValuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis where we apply a 20.0x 2027 P/E multiple ▪Disciplined

to Canada, 12.2x to UK&I, and 13.0x to US segments (derived from comparable peer multiples growth. Mgmt. is guiding toward sub-95%

across the P&C subsectors/geographies). Our PT implies an overall 16.2x 2027 Base EPS C/R for Canada personal auto & property,

valuation, a premium to large carriers peer multiple averages due to Canada marketshare & and low 90s C/R or better for Canada

underwriting prowess. Commercial. Both are achievable due to 1)

the strong utilization of repair partner C$319.77

network offsetting repair costs; and 2)

Consensus Price Target Distribution C$275.00 C$372.00 Portfolio optimization and persistent hard

MS PT

market conditions.Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates ▪Diversified growth in attractive lines

priced in the UK&I segment benefits from

positive mix shift and DLG integration. US

RISK REWARD CHART AND OPTIONS IMPLIED PROBABILITIES (12M) P&C segment should see solid results driven

by mid single digit growth in performing

LOBs along with maintaining low 90s C/R or

CAD better.

480 Consensus Rating Distribution

C$375.00(+28.83%)C$375.00C$375.00(+28.83%)(+28.83%) ProbProbProb (>375.00)~8.2%(>375.00)~8.2%(>375.00)~8.2%

67% Overweight

360 33% Equal-weight

C$300.00(+3.06%)C$300.00C$300.00(+3.06%)(+3.06%)

C$291.09C$291.09C$291.09 ProbProbProb (>300.00)~47.7%(>300.00)~47.7%(>300.00)~47.7% 0% Underweight

MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research