All eyes on the magnitude of growth slowdown vs unit economics improvement in H2

研报英文原文证据摘录

All eyes on the magnitude of growth slowdown vs unit economics improvement in H2

Equity Research

EMEA Internet

30 July 2026

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All eyes on the magnitude of

growth slowdown vs unit

AG1G.DE/AG1 GY OVERWEIGHTeconomics improvement in H2

Unchanged

Messy quarter. Debate now on magnitude of Retail unit EMEA Internet POSITIVE

economic improvement vs volume growth in H2; probably Unchanged

need upside to Retail gross profit for stock to work. We are Price Target EURUnchanged38.00

optimistic but delivery is needed; short of catalyst until Price (29-Jul-26) EUR 22.92

we get closer to Q3 results. Potential Upside/Downside +65.8% Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

We were well aware of inventory coming down into the results with live stock on site Market Cap (EUR mn) 5080

falling consistently since March (Fig 1). We also knew that the main driver of this was due Shares Outstanding (mn) 221.66

to a change in the inventory management system. What we didn’t know was how to think Free Float (%) 58.57

about the exact translation to numbers of clearing old inventory, go-forward growth with 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.5

lower inventory and GPU benefit from faster inventory turn going forwards. The results Dividend Yield (%) N/A

are slightly disappointing in this context: Q2 GPU a bit soft (clearing old inventory), Q3 Return on Equity TTM (%) 10.70

Retail unit growth only in the mid-20s % likely (due to lower inventory, some acceleration Current BVPS (EUR) 3.36

in Q4), and an unquantified step up in GPU expected but only sanctioning the prior Source: Bloomberg

consensus on H2 GPU in Retail. Time will tell if the guide is conservative. If it isn’t, gross

profit growth in Retail is slowing; that is bearish. If it is, we could exit the year with Retail Price Performance Exchange-FRA