Thoughts Post 2Q

研报英文原文证据摘录

Thoughts Post 2Q

, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 29 Self-help: Positive

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $165.00 BASE CASE $140.00 BEAR CASE $73.00

~11x Bull Case EPS Baseline of ~$15 ~11x Base Case EPS Baseline of ~$13 ~9x Bear Case 2026E EPS of ~$8

Stronger-than-expected demand (i.e., Ag macro more favorable behind biofuel Biofuel policy fails to deliver structurally

biofuels and global trade) leaves future S&D policy supporting strength in Soy & higher demand and soft commodity markets

dynamics more vulnerable to supply Softseed Processing. Offset from Grain remain consistently oversupplied with

disruptions. Prolonged ME conflict Merchandising well below baseline. Middle destocking across the value chain. Reversion

structurally supports oilseeds-to-energy East conflict a net tailwind while it persists. from ME conflict steeper than expected. Soy

complex. Soy/softseed crush margins reset Viterra becomes key differentiator, with meal market impaired from excess US crush

structurally higher and Viterra commercial strong execution against both operational capacity. Viterra cost synergies help mitigate

synergy optionality shines amidst tighter and commercial synergies driving confidence underlying weakness, but oversupplied

global S/Ds. Equity market begins to price in in a ~$13 EPS baseline. Expect equity debate S&Ds limit commercial synergy optionality.