Thoughts Post 2Q

研报英文原文证据摘录

Thoughts Post 2Q

al Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target Risk Reward Themes

Pricing Power: PositiveSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 31 Self-help: Positive

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either Special Situation: Positive

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE $120.00 BASE CASE $95.00 BEAR CASE $55.00

~16 Bull Case 2027e EBITDA ~15x 2027e Base Case EBITDA ~11.5x 2027e Bear Case EBITDA

Corn back above $5/bu and seed continues Market gains comfort in crop chemical R&D Ag cycle roll over drives crop chem reset

to price and benefit from significant growth story heading into November deeper than expected as price and volume

production cost deflation, innovation and separation. Ag cycle remains largely status declines continue. Seed price/mix also

market share gains, which drives multiple re- quo at a new mid cycle that is higher than reverts modestly, though lower seed

rating. Crop chemical destocking ends and the past mid-cycle. This allows for continued production costs from lower corn/soy

price / generic competition bottoms out seed/price mix at historical levels and the commodity prices mitigate the impact. Seed

allowing a restock akin to what fertilizer saw benefit of seed cost deflation in 2025+ vs. and crop chemical R&D pipelines face delays

after its 12 month destock. Market gains the substantial inflation absorbed 2020- and reduced peak sales forecasts.