MGM Resorts International (MGM.N): Modest Beat Aided by Exceptional Vegas Hold

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MGM Resorts International (MGM.N): Modest Beat Aided by Exceptional Vegas Hold

MGM Resorts International (MGM.N)

30 July 2026 Citi Research

MGM Resorts International

Company description

MGM Resorts International (MGM) owns, operates, and develops gaming

properties. It has the largest concentration of assets on the Las Vegas Strip.

MGM owns a collection of widely recognized resorts: MGM Grand, Mandalay

Bay, Luxor, New York-New York, Monte Carlo, Excalibur, CityCenter and

Cosmopolitan. It also owns land-based casinos in various states across the

US and a 56% interest in MGM China, which is one of the concessionaires in

Macau. MGM Resorts is also one of the partners in the consortium that was

selected by the Osaka government to build and operate an integrated resort in

Osaka, Japan.

Investment strategy

We rate MGM a Neutral. Of the four primary contributors to the MGM Model

(Vegas, Macau, Regional, and Digital) we feel really good about the

trajectories of MGM China and BetMGM, whereas Vegas is under a great deal

of pressure on both the top and bottom lines and there remain significant

questions about the promotional environment in the regional markets.

Valuation

Our 12-month price target of $48 is based on an 8.75x multiple on our 2027

EBITDAR/share estimate less leased adjusted net debt. This is a discount to

the historical multiple of 9.4x.

Risks

Key downside risks that could prevent the shares from reaching our target

price include:

• A slower-than-expected recovery in challenged gaming markets

• The impact of any macroeconomic downturn on tourism and visitation

• Consumer preference shifts away from gambling activities

• Hotel occupancy and/or ADRs underperforming historical levels

• Regulatory risk including gambling legalization and taxation could impede