2Q26: Beat & raise

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26: Beat & raise

Update

July 30, 2026 05:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MSociete Generale | Europe Giulia Aurora Miotto, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26: Beat & raise Giulia.Aurora.Miotto@morganstanley.comNed Tidmarsh +44 20 7425-5344

Research Associate

Ned.Tidmarsh@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0122

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Societe Generale (SOGN.PA, GLE FP)

Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision higher

Banks | France

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Stock Rating Overweight

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Industry View Attractive

Price target €86.00

Shr price, close (Jul 29, 2026) €76.72

Key Takeaways 52-WeekMkt cap, currRange(mn) €79.07-50.90€56,008

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* €10,611

Group PPOP beats consensus by 6%, on the back of better French Retail & F&A EV, curr (mn)* €65,391

Capital is 10bps miss, but buyback, at €1.5bn is in line * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Guidance for 2026 is upgraded, with ROTE from >10% to ~11%, leading to ~1%

consensus upgrades

We expect a small positive first share price reaction

2Q - 6% PPOP beat. Beat vs consensus was driven by 1% higher revenues, and 2%

lower costs. Buyback at €1.5bn is in line with estimates, which came down from

€2bn into the quarter. CET1, at 13.2% is a 10bps miss, as RWA growth exceeded

expectations. Importantly, 2026 targets have been upgraded: SocGen now expects

revenues growth for 2026 >2% (consensus is at 1.9%), while costs are expected to

decrease by 4% YoY (consensus at 3.4% decline): this leads to a ~1% earnings

upgrade on 2026. We expect a small positive first share price reaction, especially in

light of recent weakness.

By division: strong French Retail & F&A. French Retail was particularly strong,