European Banks: Banking On Markets – Summer 2026: Blow Out Equities Revenues

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European Banks: Banking On Markets – Summer 2026: Blow Out Equities Revenues

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17 Jul 2026 07:21:23 ET │ 61 pages

European Banks

Banking On Markets – Summer 2026: Blow Out Equities Revenues

CITI'S TAKE

Andrew Coombs, CFA AC

2Q26 saw a blow-out quarter for Equities & ECM, especially in US and Asia +44-20-7986-4053

helped by some high profile IPOs, as well as record prime balances. We do andrew.coombs@citi.com

not expect quarterly revenues to prove sustainable at these record levels,

but the backdrop is likely to remain supportive throughout 2H26 and into Saifur Rahman

2027. The downside for European banks is that US peers are electing to take +44-20-7986-3922

this opportunity to reinvest into the business, so competitive pressures look saifur.rahman@citi.com

set to intensify. UBS (and to a lesser extent Barclays) look best placed to

benefit - we increase our UBS EPS by 7-9% on Equities, plus Wealth AuM Canberk Benning

appreciation - but valuation already appears full in our view. Our top-pick +44-20-7986-1046

among the wholesale banks is SocGen and least preferred Deutsche Bank. canberk.benning@citi.com

Guru Prasad Chowdhary

US Banks Results Read-Across — [1] In aggregate Equities revenues were +71%,

guru.prasad.chowdhary@citi.comFICC +14% and Primary +46% yoy, meaning the Equities wallet has now surpassed

FICC. This backdrop bodes well for European peers, albeit we expect to see some European Banks Team

market share loss, with European Equities underperforming Asia & US. UBS appears

best placed to benefit and Deutsche Bank the least. [2] NNM, NII and transactional Rajkumar Choudhary

revenues were healthy in Wealth Management, a positive read for UBS. [3] US

Anand Dembleconsumer charge-offs remain low, a positive read for Barclays USCB. [4] US banks