The RoCE Struggle; Downgrade to UW

研报英文原文证据摘录

The RoCE Struggle; Downgrade to UW

Idea

July 29, 2026 10:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MIndorama Ventures PCL | Asia Pacific Mayank Maheshwari

Equity Analyst

The RoCE Struggle; Downgrade Mayank.Maheshwari@morganstanley.comVivek Rajamani +65 6834-6719

Vivek.Rajamani@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6740

to UW Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Hinal Choudhary

What’s Changed Research Associate

Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL.BK) From To Hinal.Choudhary@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2044

Rating Overweight Underweight

Price Target Bt26.90 Bt19.00

IVL is a leveraged play on our anti-consensus view that the

chemicals cycle is turning, but its struggle to grow ROCE above

cost of capital will limit multiple expansion with book value Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL.BK, IVL TB)

likely stagnant until 2027. Improving book value by self-help will ASEAN Energy and Materials | Thailand

Stock Rating Underweight

be a marathon not a sprint. Move to UW. Industry View Attractive

Price target Bt19.00

Up/downside to price target (%) (21)

Key Takeaways Shr price, close (Jul 27, 2026) Bt24.10

52-Week Range Bt26.25-14.60

IVL requires "disruption-level" spreads to make ROCE above cost of capital; mid- Sh out, dil, curr (mn) 5,245

Mkt cap, curr (mn) Bt126,414

cycle margins only support earnings breakeven, even with self-help measures. EV, curr (mn) Bt382,184

Avg daily trading value (mn) Bt578

Peers are showing execution on de-leveraging and using every opportunity to

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

reduce debt and cost of debt. IVL has seen limited progress on either front.

EPS (Bt)** (0.95) 1.11 0.99 1.96

Well-supplied oil markets in 2027 & continued oversupply in PET markets remain Prior EPS (Bt)** 1.05 1.75 2.05 -

EPS (Bt)§ 0.05 0.96 1.38 1.47