Thai Oil Public Company | Asia Pacific: Research Tactical Idea

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Thai Oil Public Company | Asia Pacific: Research Tactical Idea

Idea

July 3, 2026 07:59 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MThai Oil Public Company | Asia Pacific Mayank Maheshwari

Equity Analyst

Research Tactical Idea Mayank.Maheshwari@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6719

Ryan M Heng

Ryan.Heng@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6465

We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 30 days.

Vivek Rajamani

While inventory-related losses could lead to a challenging June quarter for refiners, Vivek.Rajamani@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6740

underlying profitability will likely be much stronger than in 2025. We see the 2027 Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

earnings upgrade cycle picking up after 2Q26 reporting season. Trading at 0.6 2027e Pranitha Shetty

P/B, we see valuations as undemanding given US$12/bbl gross refining margin vs Research Associate

Pranitha.Shetty@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-3022

market-implied US$6/bbl and MSe of US$7.5/bbl for 2026. While fuel exports from

Hinal Choudhary

Asia will likely rise and reduce products margins from highs, we see the refining Research Associate

golden age accelerating in the coming quarters as increased physical market Hinal.Choudhary@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2044

discounts on crude rise and government intervention on price caps and product

exports unwind in Thailand.

We estimate that there is about an 80%+ (or "highly likely") probability for the

scenario.

Thai Oil Public Company (TOP.BK, TOP TB)

Estimated probabilities are illustrative and assigned subjectively based on our ASEAN Energy and Materials | Thailand

assessment of the likelihood of the scenario. Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View Attractive

Price target Bt58.00

Up/downside to price target (%) 17