Oshkosh Corporation (OSK.N): Caution Around Guide Still Warranted Despite Better Access Outlook

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Oshkosh Corporation (OSK.N): Caution Around Guide Still Warranted Despite Better Access Outlook

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29 Jul 2026 04:00:00 ET │ 12 pages

Oshkosh Corporation (OSK.N)

Caution Around Guide Still Warranted Despite Better Access Outlook

CITI'S TAKE

We have updated our model following OSK’s 2Q results. We lower our 2026E

adj. EPS to $10.40 from $10.75, as a more constructive Access segment

outlook is more than offset by lower Vocational segment assumptions. We Neutral

have also modestly brought down our 2027E and 2028E adj. EPS Price (28 Jul 26 13:04) US$152.02

assumptions. The downside we model relative to OSK’s 2026 EPS guide of

Target price US$155.00$11.00 continues to be driven by a more conservative Transport segment

outlook. Our model assumes OSK does not receive an additional NGDV Expected share price return 2.0%

order this year and assumes that OSK delivers ~1k fewer NGDVs relative to Expected dividend yield 1.3%

its full-year guide of ~16k units. That said, while not much of a surprise

Expected total return 3.3%following rental co’s stepping up capex expectations across the board, it is

encouraging to see an Access volume recovery gaining momentum (Access Market Cap US$9,479M

b:b was ~1.1x in 2Q). We maintain our Neutral rating and $155 price target on

OSK shares.

Access — OSK is now expecting y/y sales growth in its Access segment in 2026, an Price Performance

improvement from its original expectation for a modest y/y decline, driven by an (RIC: OSK.N, BB: OSK US)

increasingly positive mega project backdrop. We think OSK can maintain DD%

Access segment margins in 2H, supported by improving price/cost throughout the

year, although a heavier mix of nat’l vs independent customers should provide some

offset.