Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Atlas Arteria (ALX.AX)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

APRR traffic growth rate (%) 1.3 (1.7) 1.9 1.6 27 Aug 2026 Half Year 2026 Atlas Arteria Group Earnings Release

APRR toll escalation (%) 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.7 TBD Dulles Greenway Federal litigation compensation claim

Chicago Skyway traffic growth rate 0.1 3.1 0.1 0.1 TBD Richmond to DC High Speed Rail

(%)

Chicago Skyway toll escalation (%) 6.4 1.9 4.7 4.1

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Traffic in Western Europe, Chicago-Indiana, and RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Virginia EU and US traffic benefit from economic

Concession negotiations, e.g., growth projects activity and population growth 0.30

French and US bond yields driving investor Debt raising and refinancing continue at EPS Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

discount rates and exchange rates favourable rates (A$) consensus data for this metric

AUD/EUR and/or AUD/USD exchange rates

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE decline

Accretive investment (OECD toll roads) 0.40

DPS

0.34 0.40 RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (A$)

10-20% North America 0.39

APRR, Skyway, and DG traffic and toll 80-90% Europe ex UK

escalations could disappoint

DG legislative reform or Skyway re-gearing is Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

less favourable Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

ALX structure may hamper corporate activityView explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONINGMS ALPHA MODELS

Inst. Owners, % Active 49.8%

3/5 3 Month

MOST Horizon Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is