Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Atlas Arteria (ALX.AX)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

APRR traffic growth rate (%) 1.3 (0.1) 1.9 1.6 29 Jul 2026 Q2 2026 Traffic Release

APRR toll escalation (%) 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.7 27 Aug 2026 Half Year 2026 Atlas Arteria Group Earnings Release

Chicago Skyway traffic growth rate 0.1 0.7 (0.3) (0.3) TBD Dulles Greenway Federal litigation compensation claim

(%)

Chicago Skyway toll escalation (%) 6.4 2.5 4.8 4.2 TBD Richmond to DC High Speed Rail

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Traffic in Western Europe, Chicago-Indiana, and RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Virginia EU and US traffic benefit from economic 0.32 Concession negotiations, e.g., growth projects activity and population growth EPS

French and US bond yields driving investor Debt raising and refinancing continue at (A$) 0.10 0.33

discount rates and exchange rates favourable rates 0.18

AUD/EUR and/or AUD/USD exchange rates

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE decline 0.40 DPS Accretive investment (OECD toll roads) 0.40

(A$) 0.40 RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

10-20% North America

APRR, Skyway, and DG traffic and toll 80-90% Europe ex UK

escalations could disappoint. Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

DG legislative reform or Skyway re-gearing is Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

less favourable.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

ALX structure may hamper corporate activity.View explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONINGMS ALPHA MODELS

Inst. Owners, % Active 49.8%

3/5 3 Month

MOST Horizon Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored