2Q26: EPS Miss As UK&I Losses Weigh on EPS, Canada Continues to Outperform.

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2Q26: EPS Miss As UK&I Losses Weigh on EPS, Canada Continues to Outperform.

Equity Research

North America Insurance/Non-Life

29 July 2026

Intact Financial

2Q26: EPS Miss As UK&I Losses

Weigh on EPS, Canada Continues

IFC.TO/IFC CN OVERWEIGHTto Outperform.

Unchanged

UK&I drove the earnings miss, while Canada delivered North America Insurance/ NEUTRAL Non-Life

Unchangedanother strong underwriting quarter. Management

maintained key targets and pointed to largely unchanged Price Target CAD 344.00 lowered -2% from CAD 352.00

pricing and market conditions. Price (28-Jul-26) CAD 305.00

Potential Upside/Downside +12.8%

2Q26 Operating EPS of C$3.17 vs C$3.58 Barc C$3.45 Street as a strong Canadian Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

underwriting result was more than offset by a larger loss in UK&I and a modest miss in the US.

Canada generated pretax underwriting income of C$357m versus our C$322m estimate, driven Market Cap (CAD mn) 53859

by larger favorable PYD across Personal Auto, Personal Property, and Commercial lines. Shares Outstanding (mn) 176.59

Personal Auto remained a standout with an 88.8% combined ratio and 8.5% premium growth, Free Float (%) 99.54

while management highlighted continued rate adequacy and healthy retention. Commercial 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.7

profitability remained strong despite competitive pressure in large accounts, while Property Dividend Yield (%) 1.93

benefited from stronger reserve releases. Outside Canada, the US miss was largely attributable Return on Equity TTM (%) 18.39

to a more conservative AYLR and higher commissions associated with business mix, while UK&I Current BVPS (CAD) 108.78

was impacted by elevated catastrophe and large losses that drove a roughly 15-point adverse Source: Bloomberg

impact relative to expectations.