Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE.O): 2Q26 Final Bite: A Sweet, Sweet Taste Traffic Growth

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Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE.O): 2Q26 Final Bite: A Sweet, Sweet Taste Traffic Growth

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28 Jul 2026 21:46:44 ET │ 14 pages

Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE.O)

2Q26 Final Bite: A Sweet, Sweet Taste Traffic Growth

CITI'S TAKE

Traffic growth (ex-COVID recovery) has been a long-time coming at the core

Cheesecake brand (2Q +2.7%). Now investor conversations quickly flip to

durability of traffic/comp growth and valuation (e.g. can CAKE break its Buy

historical paradigm). Guidance implies traffic strength persists in the NT, Price (28 Jul 26 16:00) US$89.01

and we believe relative comp strength can sustain given broad-based

drivers that are contributing to the story (e.g., app launch, rewards, new Target price US$104.00↑

media agency/tactics, new food news, delivery). On valuation, we would from US$90.00

argue that the combination of positive traffic growth/confidence in some Expected share price return 16.8%momentum from here and unit growth (with Flower Child potentially

accelerating from here) should warrant a multiple moving towards best-in- Expected dividend yield 1.5%

class peers and above CAKE's historical ranges. Expected total return 18.3%

Market Cap US$4,422M

Call takes and management follow-up — (1) New app appears to be a traffic unlock,

with management suggesting a significant % of app downloads came from guests

not in the rewards program. This new direct line of communication with guests

should provide a good line of sight into future traffic growth as well as faster

Price Performancefeedback on new product launches/company initiatives. (2) Management believes

the CF brand is winning share from independents base upon strength at dinner and (RIC: CAKE.O, BB: CAKE US)

mix trends. The brand’s ‘made from scratch’ positioning appears to have gained