PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL.O): Investments Bring Stability

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PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL.O): Investments Bring Stability

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28 Jul 2026 18:38:45 ET │ 14 pages

PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL.O)

Investments Bring Stability

CITI'S TAKE

We believe that YTD investment into Branded Checkout appears to have

created initial stability, with progress driven by BNPL acceleration, Pay with

Venmo, and strength in the US. However, despite the increased guide for Neutral

non-gaap non-transaction opex spend growth (rising 7-8% Y/Y vs 3% prior), Price (28 Jul 26 16:00) US$58.32

we think that PYPL can be even more aggressive with its investments to

drive material acceleration in Branded TPV growth, with technology Target price US$61.00↑

upgrades to the cloud and further enhancing highest priority growth from US$48.00

initiatives like a consumer loyalty program. The company emphasized that, Expected share price return 4.6%while it doesn’t comment on potential M&A discussion, management

remains committed to maximizing long-term value to shareholders. We Expected dividend yield 1.0%

remain Neutral rated and raise our PT to $61 from $48 due to improved Expected total return 5.6%

visibility. Market Cap US$51,444M

Strengths

n Moderate Guidance Beat and Raise. Beating on Branded TPV growth, and TMD

Price Performance

as well, PYPL showed that its YTD investments are beginning to stabilize the

(RIC: PYPL.O, BB: PYPL US)

business. Management provided the following raised guidance for FY26.

– Branded TPV growth. Anticipating LSD growth (vs “slightly positive to LSD

growth” prior).

– TMD growth. Anticipating ~$15.6 bln, implied to rise 0.9% Y/Y (vs “slight

decline” prior)

– Adj. EPS. Anticipating $5.38, implied to rise 1.3% Y/Y (vs “LSD decline to

slightly positive”)

n Opportunity Beyond Checkout. We believe that PYPL possesses many valuable