Walt Disney Co (DIS.N): Potential Risk to FY26 Guide

研报英文原文证据摘录

Walt Disney Co (DIS.N): Potential Risk to FY26 Guide

Walt Disney Co (DIS.N)

28 July 2026 Citi Research

Preparing for F3Q26 Results

During earnings, we suspect investors will focus on six areas:

n First, investors continue to fear a reduction in FY26 guidance. Unlike last

quarter, we think there is some risk to the FY26 guide (see Figure 1).

n Second, the buy side (based on our conversations with investors) remains

focused on domestic attendance trends. These fears increased when Comcast

noted that higher gas prices and dour consumer sentiment weighed on Epic’s

performance in June. Our 3P data suggests Street estimates for F3Q26 are

reasonable at 1%. However, we see risks to the 4Q26 estimate of 6%growth,

even with an easier comp of -4% (see Figure 8).

n Third, management hinted they may sunset Domestic attendance growth and

shift to a broader global metric (which includes International parks and Cruise

nights). We looked at historical trends for global attendance and do not expect a

demonstrably better growth rate from this potentially new KPI (see Figure 10).

n Fourth, investors want to understand how higher Experiences capex may

translate into long-term EBIT growth. A long-term target may be the greatest

opportunity for multiple expansion. However, if we don’t get a long-term

Experiences EBIT target, we continue to view incremental capex as a positive.

Management has a long track record of disciplined investments with favorable

ROICs (see Figure 18).

n Fifth, strategically, investors wonder if SVOD needs more content spending to

improve engagement. We think it does. As such, we are lowering our estimates

on higher SVOD content spending. Our SVOD margins are below the Street by

130bps in 2027 and 200bps in 2028 (see Figure 22).