INNIO Group (INIO.O): Robust Orders/Backlog Point to Continued Growth Tailwinds

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INNIO Group (INIO.O): Robust Orders/Backlog Point to Continued Growth Tailwinds

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28 Jul 2026 18:05:02 ET │ 14 pages

INNIO Group (INIO.O)

Robust Orders/Backlog Point to Continued Growth Tailwinds

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral INIO’s 2Q26 results, we think, remain reflective of durable multi-year

growth potential (Equipment orders of $2,290mn/316% y/y and slot Price (28 Jul 26 16:00) US$26.22

reservations extending to 2030). That said, we think a relatively softer- Target price US$30.00↓

than-expected 2H26 adj. EBITDA ramp (vs. our pre-print estimates) and from US$42.00

growing investor focus/concern on L-T industry power generation supply Expected share price return 14.4%

and data center infrastructure buildout weighed on the stock (INIO -2.6% Expected dividend yield 0.0%

vs. XLI -0.4%; on average, peers -5.5%). While we view risk/reward as

Expected total return 14.4% largely balanced, we think INIO is executing well (capacity expansion

Market Cap US$19,665M plans on-track + customer base expansion) and see multi-year earnings

growth supported by still growing equipment demand.

Additional Thoughts — In the Equipment segment, we think robust 2Q Andrew KaplowitzAC

orders/backlog in the quarter (INIO’s backlog + slot reservation growing to >15GW in +1-212-816-0642

the quarter) support our view of a supply constrained market and are encouraged by andrew.kaplowitz@citi.com

INIO’s capacity expansion plan remaining on track (i.e., from 3.5GW in 2025 to

Jose Sulca Flores10GW in 2030). Additionally, INIO announced a 1.1GW DC order with a new

customer (represented <30% of DC orders), and while implied pricing appears jose.alonso.sulcaflores@citi.com

relatively light (~$400k/MW), we’re encouraged by INIO expanding its customer