Vibra Energia (VBBR3.SA): 2Q26 Preview: Higher figures ahead on improved competitive scenario

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Vibra Energia (VBBR3.SA): 2Q26 Preview: Higher figures ahead on improved competitive scenario

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28 Jul 2026 12:21:29 ET │ 13 pages

Vibra Energia (VBBR3.SA)

2Q26 Preview: Higher figures ahead on improved competitive scenario

CITI'S TAKE

Vibra will disclose 2Q26 figures on 14 August. From our perspective, the

quarter saw a trend similar to that of Mar’26, with higher margins and a

higher market share given the tightness in domestic fuel inventories amid Buy

lower imports, on the large gap between domestic and international prices, Price (27 Jul 26 18:00) R$34.50

combined with measures to combat irregular practices in the sector. Thus,

we expect recurrent margins at R$450/m³ and sales volume at c.9.1mn m³ Target price R$40.00↑

on the fuel distribution side. On Comerc, we expect lower YoY figures as we from R$36.00

still see energy curtailment negatively impacting the business. However, Expected share price return 15.9%during the period, we believe Vibra increased its investments in working

capital lines, hindering its FCF generation, which we see at R$2.2bn. Also, Expected dividend yield 4.3%

we believe Vibra has allocated its cash generation to reduce its gross debt Expected total return 20.3%

and increase its own gas station network through new agreements. Market Cap R$41,350M

US$8,081MBased on this, we updated our model, increasing our 2026–27E margins given the

improved competitive outlook in the country, leading us to raise our TP to R$40/sh

(from R$36/sh) while keeping our Buy Rating, underpinned by the positive FCF

generation ahead, but noting that we see most of the upsides on margins already

priced in. Meanwhile, we believe investors are already factoring in high margin levels Price Performance