Samsonite Group SA (1910.HK): 2Q26 Preview; Top-line Pressure Remains

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Samsonite Group SA (1910.HK): 2Q26 Preview; Top-line Pressure Remains

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28 Jul 2026 10:29:22 ET │ 13 pages

Samsonite Group SA (1910.HK)

2Q26 Preview; Top-line Pressure Remains

CITI'S TAKE

We expect softer top-line trend for Samsonite in 2Q26 given full-quarter

impact on travel demand from the Middle East conflict. Citi forecasts

Samsonite’s revenue to decline by 0.6% yoy at constant currency in 2Q26 Buy

(vs. +0.4% yoy in 1Q26) and adj. net profit to drop by 29% yoy on operating Price (28 Jul 26 16:10) HK$13.82

deleverage. We view mgmt’s 26E revenue guidance of low single-digit yoy

at constant currency as challenging despite potential sequential Target price HK$16.00↓

improvement from 3Q26. We now estimate 26E revenue to be +0.3% yoy at from HK$16.80

constant currency (vs. +0.8% yoy previously). Margin pressure may persist Expected share price return 15.8%in following quarters. We trim our 2026-28E earnings forecasts by 5-6%

with more cautious revenue outlook and margin profile and lower our TP to Expected dividend yield 5.3%

HK$16.0 (from HK$16.8). Valuation is undemanding with potential US dual Expected total return 21.1%

listing (target in 2026) as a rerating catalyst. Market Cap HK$18,848M

US$2,403M2Q26 preview – Citi estimates Samsonite’s 2Q26 revenue to drop by 0.6% yoy at

constant currency with worsening trend in North America, Europe and Latin America

while Asia likely to trend similar to 1Q26. We expect gross margin to be flattish qoq.

Given weak top line, we expect the company may scale back marketing spending

budget to some extent and thus marketing expense ratio in 2Q26 may not be at 8%, Price Performance

as previously planned. We estimate adj. EBITDA to decline by 19% yoy in 2Q26 with (RIC: 1910.HK, BB: 1910 HK)

adj. EBITDA margin similar to 1Q26.