CMBS Weekly: Aggregate FY ‘25 conduit cash flow growth flat, but differed significantly by prop type

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CMBS Weekly: Aggregate FY ‘25 conduit cash flow growth flat, but differed significantly by prop type

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CMBS Weekly

Aggregate FY ‘25 conduit cash flow growth

flat, but differed significantly by prop type

Key takeaways 24 July 2026

Securitized Products Strategy• Remain neutral; market uncertainty and tight spreads suggest there are limited

United States

catalysts for near term spread tightening.

Alan Todd, CFA

• 1H 26 private label refinance success at 65% and 70% for conduit and SASB, CMBS Strategist

BofAS

respectively. Excluding office improves the rate. +1 646 855 6383

alan.todd@bofa.com

• Full-year 2025 cash flow growth slowed to 0.1%. Industrial outperformed and office

lagged. NickCMBSO'BrienStrategist

nicholas.obrien@bofa.com

Spreads broadly unchanged; remain neutral

CMBS spreads were unchanged across virtually all sectors this week, extending a multi-

month period of remarkable stability. Tight spreads have been supported by record Exhibit 1: Most spreads were

investment-grade fund inflows, with bond funds attracting approximately $371bn year- unchanged this week; data center 5

to-date. Although strong demand continues to match strong issuance, we remain neutral wider

both Agency and private label CMBS and look for spreads to remain rangebound as tight Spreads remain largely unchanged near year-

to-date tightsspreads, market/inflation uncertainty, and Middle East turmoil cloud the near-term

outlook.

Benchmark Conduit CMBS spreads to Treasury

Deconstructing 1H 2026 private label refinance success A1 (3yr) 7/2370 WTD0 MTD0 YTD-10 Min70 Max80

Private-label refinancing performance in 1H 2026 was better than many investors A2 (5yr) 110 0 0 -17 110 127

A-SB 65 0 0 -10 65 75

feared.